Theme: Government Financial Operations

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) emphasises the importance of monetary operations within modern economies. They explain the difference between Greece and Japan, a distinction that some find hard to make. This article provides a limited overview, and a set of links to some of my related articles on this topic.

Theme: Personal Finance

This post is a list of links to articles I have written which discuss personal finance. I would not consider this a personal finance blog, rather I have a few points that I hope may be useful. (This article will be expanded over time.)

Theme: Personal Finance Resources

This entry is a list of external resources for personal finance that I find useful, including book reviews.

Theme: Concerns With DSGE Models

This theme post gives an overview of my complaints (and possibly praise) about Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in economics. This post will be updated over time, as material is added.

Theme: Effectiveness Of Interest Rates

One of the defining characteristics of this interest rate cycle (and to a lesser extent, the previous cycle) has been the persistent forecast errors by central banks as well as the market consensus regarding the timing of "renormalisation" of policy rates. The standard explanation is that this can be explained by the reality that there was poorly timed fiscal austerity across the developed economies interacting with the fact that policy rates have hit their lower bound near zero. Alternatively, it may be that interest rates have less impact on the real economy than is commonly assumed.

Theme: MMT and SFC Models

This article is a list of my non-time sensitive articles on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and Stock-Flow Consistent models. Modern Monetary Theory is an offshoot of Stock-Flow Consistent modelling, so the distinction between them is somewhat arbitrary. I categorise my articles that are more focused on monetary operations as being MMT.

Theme: JGB Collapse!

Introduction

This is a list of articles covering the somewhat slow-paced collapse of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market.

Theme: Canada Housing Bubble

The following articles discuss the Canadian housing bubble, and its effects.

• Why The Canadian Economy Is Doomed...
•  Why The Canadian Economy Has Not Blown Up Yet

(c) Brian Romanchuk 2013

Theme: Fiscal Policy

Below is a list of articles which give the theoretical background for how I analyse fiscal policy. It does not include articles that are commentary on the latest developments.

Theme: Outlooks

This is a list of my market, central bank, or inflation Outlooks. These provide a view as to what I see as being the big picture; most of my other articles which are adjustments to these base views. As such, they are a place to start, but it must be understood that I may have modified my views since.

Note that I cannot give investment advice, and so these outlook pieces tend to discuss possible scenarios rather than one story that I am advocating.

Central Banks

• Fed Outlook For 2015 (November 2014)
• Bank of Canada Outlook  (October 2013)

Inflation

• Canada Medium-Term Inflation Outlook 2%

Archives

• Fed Outlook, Autopilot Until 2015? (January 2014)

(c) Brian Romanchuk 2013

Theme: Rate Expectations And The Term Premium

I feel that the use of rate expectations is the best methodology for determining the fair value for bonds. The list below shows my articles on this theme. (The list also includes discussions of the related topic of the term premium.)

• Pricing Bonds Via Rate Expectations
• Primer: What Is The Term Premium?
• Historical Term Premia: Huge!
• Primer: Should You Use Affine Term Structure Models?
• MMT analysis of the role of bonds as a reserve drain.

(c) Brian Romanchuk 2013