This is a list of articles covering the somewhat slow-paced collapse of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market.
As I discuss in this article, there has been a pivot (starting around 2012) towards replacing JGB collapse stories with 'Yen Crash' theories.
Timing The Collapse Of The JGB Market
Extreme Predictions About The Collapse Of The JGB Market
Visionaries? Greatly Mistaken? I'll let you, the reader, decide. A compendium of extreme forecasts about Japan and JGB's which appeared after the inception of this blog. (Too many occurred before to hope to cover properly.)
- Fujimaki: Japanese Hyperinflation By 2015! (Update: He argued that the yen is going to 200 in December 2014.) Verdict: Fail.
- Fujimaki, once again, in 2016. No date on the hyperinflation call this time.
- How Fiat Dies (Vincent Cate): Bank of Japan Printing At Hyperinflationary Rates Argument being that this should hit the price level soon (he is monitoring the data since May 2013).
- Kyle Bass - Yen beyond 300, JGB yields of 20%. Open-ended prediction date.
- Feldman (Morgan Stanley MUFG) - possible "collapse" if fiscal reforms not completed by 2-3 years (early 2017 at the latest); sees inflation risks.
- David Stockman: Yen 200, JGB default. No horizon given.
- Mark Adonis - JGB's doomed because of demographics (my article 2015-01-04). No date given, but within a "few" years of early 2015, so starting around 2018 or so.