Sunday, April 23, 2017
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Saturday, April 15, 2017
James Rickards recently published The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites' Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis. His argument is that the risks of a financial crisis is building (possibly hitting in 2018), and that the financial system will be locked down as a result. (He argues that you need to buy gold to hedge against this.) The book is awkward, but has some interesting features. He describes various pop mathematics techniques for economic and financial analysis, although the book does not provide enough details to be able to evaluate them. James Rickards joined the LTCM hedge fund in 1994, and provides an insider's take on its collapse. He is also nostalgic for the economic framework of the 1950s, which parallels the views of a lot of post-Keynesians; the issue is that he is fixated on the gold peg, which was arguably an incidental feature of the 1950s economic institutions.
Wednesday, April 12, 2017
The low levels of implied volatility in the bond market has attracted a fair amount of commentary. Although it seems reasonable to believe that volatility selling strategies have reduced market volatility, there's no fundamental reason to expect a big reversal (outside of another crisis).