Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Since I am not in the forecasting or investment recommendation business, I am not the best person to ask what the Fed will do over the next few meetings. I just want to note that the historical bar for rate cuts now is quite high; the only question is whether Powell is more flexible, which would break the continuity of the Fed's policy stance.
Wednesday, June 12, 2019
One of the advantages of mathematical training is that you are forced to take definitions seriously, and step cautiously from premise to premise. This enforces clarity in logic.
I have looked over my manuscript, and decided to split my book on recessions into two volumes. The first draft of the first volume is very close to complete, and I will now be iterating on the text. There are only a couple of areas of new material left that would make their way into the blog. Although my normal strategy is to write stand alone articles to advance a few projects at the same time (and have a variety of articles on my website), I now need to focus on the first volume manuscript and polish the text. Based on past history, it should be ready for publication by November.
Although the natural next step would be to work on volume two immediately, I might target a lighter, shorter text. An inexpensive MMT primer is one possibility.
Sunday, June 9, 2019
(Note: this is an unedited excerpt from my upcoming book on recessions. It is in a chapter that discusses empirical recession indicators. Since the concept was already introduced, the discussion here does not cover background concepts, such as what a recession indicator is used for.)
Thursday, June 6, 2019
article I discussed yesterday. What is to be done about financial sectors that are out-of-control, and endangering economic stability?