Sunday, April 26, 2015
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
Sunday, April 19, 2015
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
I quite often see variants of the following statement: “The government will be forced to default because of its debt load, or else pursue inflationary policies, which is another form of default.” In my view, this is a soundbite, not serious analysis, and it is very difficult to reason with soundbites. This article is a series of questions that are raised by this concept.
Sunday, April 12, 2015
The Canadian economy has been performing better than my very low expectations, but that is not saying too much. The labour market is stagnant, and condo developers refuse to give up. The lack of drama is allowing the Federal Government to move towards fulfilling its campaign promises, including the adoption of balanced budget legislation.
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
this article about bond bubbles, which drew responses on the Mike Norman Economics web site (here and here). Professor DeLong's points have a lot of embedded assumptions, and I cannot deal with all of them here. But I do discuss one assumption in my upcoming eReport: Understanding Government Finance. This is the idea government 'has to pay back its debt'.
Saturday, April 4, 2015
The Employment Situation Report for March was at best mediocre. The Unemployment Rate and the Employment Ratio (pictured above) were unchanged. My "base case view" at the beginning of the year matched the consensus view, in that rate hikes by "mid-year" was the most likely outcome. However, the risks were skewed towards further delays, and this labour report pushes in that direction.