I am about to write up some comments on yield curves. After that, I am returning to the second volume on recessions, as well as starting to think more about inflation theory. (After Recessions Vol II, my plan is to do either inflation or fiscal policy/recessions.)
Monday, January 25, 2021
Thursday, January 21, 2021
Tuesday, January 19, 2021
Thursday, January 14, 2021
The sell-off in the Treasury market is following the footsteps of other mini-bear markets that have happened at the tail end of recessions. Barring some economic fireworks, it is entirely likely that yields will enter range-trading mode. For now, the question remains as to what levels the bear phase stalls out at.
Sunday, January 10, 2021
Monday, January 4, 2021
A recent controversy that erupted was the question as to whether transfer payments (such as the $2000 transfer that was debated in the United States) would cause the economy to overheat. There is an interesting issue: even if $2000 is not enough, what about larger amounts? I have severe doubts that anyone could give a useful answer to what appears to be a simple quantitative question, without a country pushing the envelope for the sake of an economic experiment.