The Undercover Economist Strikes Back (How to Run - Or Ruin - An Economy) by Tim Harford is an interesting popular introduction to macroeconomics. Tim Harford has written previous popularisations about microeconomics; in this book he takes a stab at trying to explain macro. The book is well written for its target audience, but it glosses over the theoretical divide within the field.
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Sunday, August 17, 2014
Saturday, August 16, 2014
The do-over for the July Labour Force Survey for July 2014 was much better than the first go - 42,000 jobs were created in this version, instead of just 200. But as the chart above shows, the year-on-year growth rate for employment is still below 1%. And the details of the report are less buoyant the aggregate job number suggests, as growth was dominated by part-time positions.
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
Just a short comment today. I was getting some charts together to discuss the ugly Canadian July Labour Force Survey, but it appears the data were so ugly that they were wrong. The data will be re-released on Friday, August 15 (at least my charts are ready). I will instead make some comments about the global bond market rally.
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
my previous post about the unemployment gap. I explain more formally how incorporating nominal rigidity - the well-documented avoidance of wage cuts - can improve the recent performance of a simple wage inflation model.
Sunday, August 3, 2014
The U.S. Employment Situation report released last Friday was somewhat weaker-than-expected, but the data follow the pre-existing trends. There is no sign that turmoil overseas has yet had an impact on the U.S. labour market, which is not too surprising - there is no reason to expect that U.S. labour market to lead international economic data. If the recovery is not derailed by the various existing imbalances, the unemployment rate would likely follow its post-2010 trend, and crash into the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) at some point in 2015. In this article, I discuss various aspects of the NAIRU concept.