Thursday, December 1, 2022
Monday, November 28, 2022
This article continues the previous discussion of bank net interest margins. In it, I discussed how changes in the yield curve changed the net interest margin (NIM) for banks. This showed up historically — when bank balance sheets were shattered by the combination of holding long-dated mortgages with low fixed coupons versus having a sky-high short-term rate imposed by deranged Monetarists. In this article, I address a common macroeconomic story: yield curve inversions cause recessions by the alleged effect on NIM. As a spoiler, I do not think that story holds water in “modern” banking systems.
Tuesday, November 22, 2022
One of the topics that comes up whenever government bond curves re-price is the relationship between the yield curve and bank net interest margins (NIM). This then morphs into a second question: does a yield curve inversion cause a recession by the (alleged) effect of the yield curve on bank interest margins, reducing the willingness of banks to lend?
Wednesday, November 16, 2022
Saturday, November 12, 2022
I was invited onto the MMT Podcast with Patricia Pino and Christian Reilly (thanks!): “What Is A Bond Vigilante And How Do We Get Rid Of Them?” A discussion of some of the issues raised by the wackiness in the U.K. bond market. Obviously not a current event, but a discussion of what we can learn.
Friday, November 11, 2022
Wednesday, November 9, 2022
Bank capital is the buffer on a bank’s balance sheet that allows it to absorb losses, particularly credit losses. Although there is a great deal of excitement about bank liquidity — bank runs, just like in “It’s a Wonderful Life”! — but the main danger is the capital buffer being wiped out (insolvency). A bank run might feature at the end of the bank’s lifetime (quite often, regulators just step in), but the trigger is the insolvency. This article discusses bank capital at a high level, from a macroeconomic viewpoint.