tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.comments2024-03-29T02:54:56.523-04:00Bond EconomicsBrian Romanchukhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comBlogger6476125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-13336022820333804212024-01-26T09:09:44.799-05:002024-01-26T09:09:44.799-05:00Sure. I'd do it with a PID with an anti-windup...Sure. I'd do it with a PID with an anti-windup correction so that I could pretend my Ph.D. was useful...Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-74900588010899828012024-01-26T08:36:22.234-05:002024-01-26T08:36:22.234-05:00Regarding your appendix… if your heating is a boil...Regarding your appendix… if your heating is a boiler you can still approach that steady state heating even with an on-off boiler. As you’ve wonderfully pointed out, it’s important to have a good understanding of how the system works. They key factor is how are those BTUs being distributed to the living space. In a boiler design it’s the circulating water that does the job. Now you achieve the optimal efficiency by using a modulating boiler, but a simple on-off boiler can also work once you start monitoring the water temperature and then cycle the boiler firing to maintain the right range of heated water being sent to the living space. This can be done in the real world by using an outdoor reset device to control the firing of the boiler, even and on-off boiler. The optimal devices also allow for the input of interior room temperature to allow for the calculation modifications when heat loss rates changes such as on a very windy day.Adam1https://www.blogger.com/profile/16815110032496495948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-23490948881048574882023-10-30T09:41:37.642-04:002023-10-30T09:41:37.642-04:00Yes. I am discussing theories for forecasting infl...Yes. I am discussing theories for forecasting inflation, and although saying that interest rates do not work the way they say is not enough to give us a forecasting model.Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-57717223678697850672023-10-30T09:39:15.913-04:002023-10-30T09:39:15.913-04:00That's the "Phillips Curve."That's the "Phillips Curve."Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-86361927760805423152023-10-29T17:36:50.231-04:002023-10-29T17:36:50.231-04:00Buffer stock of unemployed control inflationBuffer stock of unemployed control inflationAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-18983678162608526952023-10-29T17:36:11.084-04:002023-10-29T17:36:11.084-04:00Have you read this post from n Wilson:
https://ne...Have you read this post from n Wilson:<br /><br />https://new-wayland.com/blog/interest-price-spiral/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-56745267256615597982023-10-09T08:16:15.625-04:002023-10-09T08:16:15.625-04:00Thanks for sharing the information. I like this we...Thanks for sharing the information. I like this website.<br /><a href="https://srislawyer.com/divorce-new-jersey-divorce-lawyer-new-jersey-divorce-law/" rel="nofollow">what are the grounds for divorce in new jersey</a><br /><a href="https://srislawyer.com/uncontested-divorce-lawyer-virginia/" rel="nofollow">uncontested divorce fredericksburg virginia</a><br /><br />shanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01087269183103943405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-20813637784330360942023-08-18T15:34:27.721-04:002023-08-18T15:34:27.721-04:00When this kind of analysis talks about "expec...When this kind of analysis talks about "expected inflation rates," is it meant in the informal sense ("the inflation rates that important people anticipate")? Or is it meant in a more formal sense of some weighted average over a probability distribution?<br /><br />I am assuming the former (since the latter would probably involve some sort of empirical investigation, upon whose rocks the whole thing would likely soon founder) but if they do mean the more rigorous one, that'd be interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-82541209730296218842023-06-22T04:27:12.726-04:002023-06-22T04:27:12.726-04:00"why would we not expect forecasts to do a de..."why would we not expect forecasts to do a decent job of forecasting the underlying trend of inflation" - all the usual "underlying inflation" indicators made a particularly poor job in the recent inflation being actually lagging indicators. Relying on them by central banks will induce excessively restrictive by maintaining restrictive conditions longer than when relying on headline. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-20675680778941131632023-06-17T06:42:42.205-04:002023-06-17T06:42:42.205-04:00David Harvey explains it in this video. Using Hote...David Harvey explains it in this video. Using Hotelling's study of ice cream sellers on a beach.<br /><br />https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X1Vdr0ZRnL0<br /><br />When we buy stuff in the public sector we are now faced with a big 2 or 3 who rig prices between themselves.<br /><br />When we buy stuff in the private sector we are faced with consortiums who own most of the shops, cinemas, bars and restaurants on the high street. This was very clear when you saw what these consortiums owners they asked for loans during the pandemic.<br /><br />They raised prices rather than cut wages.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-69121999413864947932023-05-22T12:52:00.227-04:002023-05-22T12:52:00.227-04:00I have 2 degrees in economics, but I’ve worked for...I have 2 degrees in economics, but I’ve worked for a depository institution for 15+ years on the analytical side. To this day I can’t forget a conversation I had with the person who managed our payment (clearing) operations… I had been meet with Joan to better understand how payments were processed – payments are a point of data of interest. In our conversation Joan said she always felt uncomfortable that “we’re running on air”. I immediately thought Joan was a Gold Bug, but as I learned more I realized that was not what she meant. Joan was NOT AN ECONOMIST, but she knew how the system worked. She was not invested in an IDEOLOGY, but she knew and had more insight into how the system worked.<br /><br />Henry Ford - “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”<br /><br />Economist just aren’t any smarter than the average person, and they still haven’t figure out that they KNOW NOTHING about how banking and finance actually works. They waste their time with epicycles so that they don’t have to acknowledge that they really don’t get it or that maybe they were wrong.<br /><br />As someone who was trained as an economist, it took visits with Joan to realize what I had been taught about “banking” was false!<br /><br />Old stats saying... "Liars can figure and figures can lie". The Money Multiplier is, or historically had been, an ex-post accounting fact number, but it doesn’t mean that’s how banking works.<br />Adam1https://www.blogger.com/profile/16815110032496495948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-86284661439242605822023-05-22T08:39:12.693-04:002023-05-22T08:39:12.693-04:00Thanks.Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-62375368916909963842023-05-21T21:36:55.493-04:002023-05-21T21:36:55.493-04:00I will definitely get - Understanding Government F...I will definitely get - Understanding Government Finance, and your book on MMT. As for the complications. I think they are addressed from time to time, particularly in this paper by Wray and Tymoigne https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_778.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-30008217490520590192023-05-21T17:27:41.175-04:002023-05-21T17:27:41.175-04:00(This is Brian).
1) I write about “spending first”...(This is Brian).<br />1) I write about “spending first” in “Understanding Government Finance.” If we go back to “the beginning,” government needs to spend first. But once we are in steady state, there’s a cycle. I think the MMTers are directionally correct, but I think the situation is more complicated than primers suggest.<br />2) I don’t think that unelected bureaucrats should be doing spending decisions, that’s Parliament’s prerogative. If the banking system is well regulated, there is no need to think about non-banks needing to hold the equivalent of reserve balances.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-75744140148933730632023-05-21T17:27:40.776-04:002023-05-21T17:27:40.776-04:00(This is Brian).
1) I write about “spending first”...(This is Brian).<br />1) I write about “spending first” in “Understanding Government Finance.” If we go back to “the beginning,” government needs to spend first. But once we are in steady state, there’s a cycle. I think the MMTers are directionally correct, but I think the situation is more complicated than primers suggest.<br />2) I don’t think that unelected bureaucrats should be doing spending decisions, that’s Parliament’s prerogative. If the banking system is well regulated, there is no need to think about non-banks needing to hold the equivalent of reserve balances.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-9127902026460010622023-05-21T08:34:23.401-04:002023-05-21T08:34:23.401-04:00Great appearance yesterday with Keen and Friends. ...Great appearance yesterday with Keen and Friends. I will definitely get your books. I have a couple of questions.<br />1. Given your practical knowledge of the money machine, do you accept the STAB (spending before tax and borrow) dynamic?<br />2. Since settlement balances can't be used by the public but CBDCs can, do you think CBDCs would failitate MMT's sovereign money position? <br /><br />Thanks and best wishes.<br /><br />Joe PolitoGood Samaritanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17449296348246458954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-76034176168007004042023-05-10T07:14:32.898-04:002023-05-10T07:14:32.898-04:00(This is Brian) Thanks, I can take a look.(This is Brian) Thanks, I can take a look.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-74744668575473471522023-05-10T07:14:08.992-04:002023-05-10T07:14:08.992-04:00(This is Brian.) My concern is the gap between pla...(This is Brian.) My concern is the gap between planned profits and what actually happens. We can see the wage/profit split in the national accounts, but that split also reflects what other actors (e.g. government) are doing. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-71582522147373539752023-05-10T04:19:07.005-04:002023-05-10T04:19:07.005-04:00That's not a good article at all. It's int...That's not a good article at all. It's intellectually weak and reaches a completely unfounded conclusion. It's intellectually weak because it glosses over when firms might raise prices, which is "whenever they can get away with it" which means the price increases don't impact their ability to find and retain customers. The most obvious time this is true is when customers don't have any option because e.g. (a) there is a shortage of the thing being sold or (b) the supplier has a monopoly or is part of a cartel. Both cases result in higher profits. Of course, some businesses are forced to increase prices in order to pay their suppliers or they go bust, but that is not particularly interesting. Both cases are essentially a failure of the market (assuming we're not discussing some bleeding edge product). Case (a) will be relieved over time if competition is allowed to act; (b) needs a regulator to step in, or in the case of something like oil, the product to be made obsolete as fast as possible.henghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04111317512108435447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-49170821369664598312023-05-10T04:06:42.744-04:002023-05-10T04:06:42.744-04:00Surely a better framing is to ask the counter fact...Surely a better framing is to ask the counter factual: How do prices increase if not due to someone making an increased profit? I guess if we generalise profits to include wages, I suspect that covers all the bases. The only question then is whether its wages or businesses that are (ultimately) leading to the higher prices. Is there more to it than that?henghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04111317512108435447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-65877840336634926592023-05-09T15:54:51.435-04:002023-05-09T15:54:51.435-04:00There was a good article by Don Boudreaux that sai...There was a good article by Don Boudreaux that said "corporate greed" was just as likely to lower prices as it was to raise them. A small quote and then a link to the article.<br /><br />[quote]<br />First, there’s no reason to suppose that firms have recently become more greedy. Second, “greed” is at least as likely to push prices down as up; after all, the most obvious way for firms that are greedy for more customers to satisfy their lust is to cut prices.<br />[end quote]<br /><br />https://cafehayek.com/2022/05/unprofitable-analysis.html<br /><br />Ahmed Fareshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07105255828394485657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-54707477933197427222023-04-29T08:27:05.903-04:002023-04-29T08:27:05.903-04:00(This is Brian.) I don’t know what Murphy has to s...(This is Brian.) I don’t know what Murphy has to say about it, but my view is that spending-tax-spend is a cycle that is hard to define a “before” and “after.” You need to go back to the “beginning” to truly define a before and after - and pretty much every monetary system replaced a previous system.<br /><br />It’s a popular way of introducing MMT, but I do not think it is too significant for the theory. People like Murphy spend way too much time obsessing about wording in primers aimed at a mass audience.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-18853851770454460082023-04-28T23:03:01.205-04:002023-04-28T23:03:01.205-04:00Hi Brian, thanks for those thoughts. It seems the ...Hi Brian, thanks for those thoughts. It seems the wider MMT community and chief proponents (Bill Mitchell, Randy W, Stephanie Kelton etc.) have, perhaps wisely, opted not to wade into Murphy’s disagreements with them. I find those disagreements hard to accept myself. Quite apart from the fact that he is disputing the MMT architects’ take on certain aspects of MMT, do you see anything persuasive in Murphy’s challenge to Mosler (and Mitchell) on the fundamental sequence of the currency issuer spending and then taxing?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-18078145522353347392023-04-19T12:36:57.275-04:002023-04-19T12:36:57.275-04:00(This is Brian.) I have a pretty low opinion on th...(This is Brian.) I have a pretty low opinion on the modern academic system, but it is still pretty hard to get a primer with “I disagree with something I can’t explain” through the process. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-46548421016993007682023-04-19T11:31:10.529-04:002023-04-19T11:31:10.529-04:00> I doubt that he could get anything past peer ...> I doubt that he could get anything past peer review in a real economic journal<br /><br />Sadly, peer review is sufficiently subject to groupthink that the same could likely be said of a lot more well-informed MMT articles, no?Tierceletnoreply@blogger.com