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Monday, November 9, 2020

Vaccine News

The vaccine news seems positive to my inexpert eyes, but I do not want to waste my readers' time by discussing the obvious. I want to make a couple of observations.

The first is that if these news holds, policymakers are in a position to outline rollout strategies, and so we finally have a timeline for "normalisation." This will hopefully reduce the carping about the cost of support packages, since we can start to put an upper bound on costs. (The political situation in the United States might inject some uncertainty.) We should see a decent-sized snap-back in activity, the concern is that if support is withdrawn too soon, we have a wave of business/household failures hitting first.

A related point is the situation for airline travel and high profile tourist venues. My working assumption is that international travel is likely to be tied to vaccination status (if not legally, at least by traveller caution). My largely uneducated guess is that it might not take that long for the numbers of vaccinated would-be travellers to meet the capacity constraints for air travel. This would greatly help reduce the really big dollar amounts associated with air industry support.

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