A selection of articles from my manuscript on recessions.
- Using the yield curve as a recession indicator.
- When can yield curves fail as recession indicators?
- Example of yield curve failure in Australia.
An older article from Interest Rate Cycles: The Yield Curve and the Cycle.
Otherwise, I do not see much value in wasting readers' time giving my non-forecasts. The only commentary I can offer is that it is probably a mistake to focus only on domestic data in the United States; the risks are probably coming from external linkages. Meanwhile, I am currently not following international data closely enough to provide much guidance.