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Sunday, August 18, 2019

Yield Curve Articles

There's been a lot of discussion of the yield curve. Rather than repeat myself, I will just provide links to a few of my earlier articles that give background (but any charts are obviously out of date) in case the reader missed them.

A selection of articles from my manuscript on recessions.


An older article from Interest Rate Cycles: The Yield Curve and the Cycle.

Otherwise, I do not see much value in wasting readers' time giving my non-forecasts. The only commentary I can offer is that it is probably a mistake to focus only on domestic data in the United States; the risks are probably coming from external linkages. Meanwhile, I am currently not following international data closely enough to provide much guidance.
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