Recent Posts

Sunday, August 18, 2019

Yield Curve Articles

There's been a lot of discussion of the yield curve. Rather than repeat myself, I will just provide links to a few of my earlier articles that give background (but any charts are obviously out of date) in case the reader missed them.

A selection of articles from my manuscript on recessions.


An older article from Interest Rate Cycles: The Yield Curve and the Cycle.

Otherwise, I do not see much value in wasting readers' time giving my non-forecasts. The only commentary I can offer is that it is probably a mistake to focus only on domestic data in the United States; the risks are probably coming from external linkages. Meanwhile, I am currently not following international data closely enough to provide much guidance.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Posts may be moderated, and there may be a considerable delay before they appear.

Although I welcome people who disagree with me, please be civil.

Please note that my spam comment filter appears to dislike long "anonymous" posts.

Note: if you want to post comments from Apple devices (iPhone, iPad), you apparently need to turn off "prevent cross-site tracking" in Safari privacy settings. (The reason presumably is that another URL handles comments, and so the user session needs to be preserved when redirected to that site. I don't like this, but this is not enough to make me switch my hosting service.)