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Monday, June 6, 2016

Yellen Speech Versus The Labor Market Conditions Index

Chart: U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index

Today's speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Yellen contained pretty much the expected platitudes. I found nothing surprising, but more experienced Fed watchers might find some interesting details. I would summarise it as: if the economy does not go into the tank, the Fed will hike. That does not represent new information. However, I found the phrasing "While the economy has made great strides toward the FOMC's objective of maximum employment..." somewhat ironic when compared to the latest Labor Market Conditions Index (as calculated by the Federal Reserve; shown above). Although I realise that I have bearish tendencies, the dive in this indicator probably merits some further attention.

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