Reserve Currency Blues

The “Demise of the Dollar” is a long-running story in hard money circles, and has gotten a recent push by the growth of transactions in the Chinese yuan in international transactions. Although it seems likely that the yuan will grow in importance, this is largely a nothingburger from the perspective of the United States.

Emerging market investor Paul McNamara was recently interviewed by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal on this topic. His views are better thought out than mine, but I just want to chime in from the perspective of a developed market govvies analyst.

The Canadian "Fiscal Crisis Of 1994-5"

I have now arrived at the part of the preparation for my panel that I have dreaded: the Great Canadian Fiscal Crisis of 1994-1995. This is an event that Canadian Establishment figures will talk your ear off about if you bring up Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). My problem with this crisis is that I spent my working life staring at charts of yields, economic data, and exchange rates, and never even noticed anything unusual during that period in Canada. It was only much later that I heard about this alleged crisis. (I was out of the country until August 1994, and too busy teaching my first course as a postdoc in engineering to notice what was happening in the markets or the news.)

Central Bank Independence As A Secret Ingredient?

Following up on my comments on the paper: “Deficits Do Matter: A Review of Modern Monetary Theory” by Farah Omran and Mark Zelmer, I am going to do a high level discussion about their claims about the value of an independent central bank. (For new readers, I am discussing this paper as I will be on a panel about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), and Mark Zelmer is one of the participants. I am using my articles here as a way of thinking about my prepared remarks.)

Silly "MMT" Drama

If I were smart, I would skip mentioning this, but there has been some drama between “Richard J. Murphy” and MMT proponents. Since I mentioned him recently, I blundered into creating a moral obligation to dip further into this mess. I do not really know who Richard J. Murphy is, but he apparently is high profile among some section of British progressives, which is the source of the drama. As a crotchety old school Canadian Prairie Populist (who is inexplicably stuck in Montreal), intra-left drama is not something I find surprising nor interesting. The issue here from my perspective is that Murphy is attempting to commandeer “MMT.”

IMF WEO Debt Reduction Chapter

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently published its World Economic Outlook (WEO) which has a combination of a report and an annual database of macroeconomic data (including forecasts). The beauty of this database is that the IMF has boffins that work to harmonise the data across countries. I normally do not pay too much attention to the text of the report, but it has a chapter entitled “Coming Down to Earth: How to Tackle Soaring Public Debt” which attracted some attention. (There was also a chapter on the natural rate of interest that would probably cause me to lose a portion of what remains of my hair.)

Comments On The Omran/Zelmer MMT Critique

This article is a grab bag of comments on the paper: “Deficits Do Matter: A Review of Modern Monetary Theory” by Farah Omran and Mark Zelmer. I have mentioned this article before, for the good reason that Mark Zelmer will be on the other side of a panel on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) that I will be on in late May.

Tax And MMT Mudslinging...

I have been tied up courtesy of a major power failure, Easter, and other family obligations. Over the weekend, there was a blow up on Twitter between Richard J. Murphy and what appeared to be dozens of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) proponents. (I ignore any Twitter thread involving lots of people and lasts more than a day, so I cannot fill in more details.) The dispute was about the role of taxes (although it devolved into whining about attitudes). Since many of my readers will have found me via Twitter, I just want to explain why this is largely a non-issue.

Further Comments On Funded Public Pensions

As a further comment on “funded” public pensions (link to previous note), I just want to comment on the side effects of such “funding.” (To recap, a central government could create fictitious bonds to match “pension contributions,” which has the same cash flows as a pure “pay-as-you-go” scheme. The alternative Canada has switched towards is to buy financial assets with the “pension contributions” — although some of those assets would be reinvested in bonds guaranteed by the Government of Canada.) As I discussed, this is economically equivalent to the Government of Canada levering up its balance — issuing bonds to the private sector to buy private sector assets.

Public Pensions And Net Debt

Some Canadian conservatives were predictably angry last week when the Federal Liberal government highlighted Canada’s relatively low net debt. They want to instead focus on the gross debt, which moved in a different direction. (The figure above shows the gross and net financial liabilities of the “general government” — includes provincial governments. Canadian provincial governments have a big economic footprint, and in order for the debt figures to be comparable to international peers, you want to look at the general government. Otherwise, the Canadian government looks to be a misleadingly small part of the economy.)