Sunday, November 10, 2019
Wednesday, November 6, 2019
The definition deliberately uses the vague term “fiscal variable” for reasons to be discussed later.
Sunday, November 3, 2019
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Will Japan’s consumption tax hike fix its fiscal woes?" (h/t Tom Hickey at Mike Norman Economics). I just wanted to comment on some statements about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), as well as fiscal sustainability, and "independent fiscal institutions."
Sunday, October 27, 2019
Interest Rate Cycles: An Introduction.)
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
This is a short update of an article I wrote on activity-based recession probability models (link). The difference between this class of models and those relying on forward-looking information is better underlined as a result of recent events. Activity-based models are much less jumpy than those that rely on the yield curve (for example).
Sunday, October 20, 2019
My main writing duties have been cleaning up my manuscript. One of the sections I was looking at discussed how the manuscript text was mainly written by early 2019, and I am not attempting to have it capturing the latest data. One scenario that was obviously embarrassing would be a recession starting before the official publication date.