tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post8439388179679778742..comments2024-03-01T02:40:14.946-05:00Comments on Bond Economics: Quick Update On Recession Probability ModelsBrian Romanchukhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-60943559714665501702019-12-13T04:19:13.873-05:002019-12-13T04:19:13.873-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15688965677544817452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-81362845290759767312019-10-24T10:10:11.144-04:002019-10-24T10:10:11.144-04:00My original article (linked) had the reference det...My original article (linked) had the reference details for the Piger & Chauvet paper. The paper discusses the effects of revisions, and the model was historically robust.<br /><br />You obviously need to be careful about the series used. For example, GDP is "revised" far too much to be useful in real time. (The initial passes of GDP are based on projecting variables that are not yet available, and then filled in the later versions. People might not view the changes as the data come in as being revisions, and would just use the term to apply to what happens when methodology changes, rebasing, etc.)Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-19437186375432506922019-10-23T16:14:22.615-04:002019-10-23T16:14:22.615-04:00Does this account for data revisions? If i remembe...Does this account for data revisions? If i remember, there tend to be very large revisions around inflection points? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com