tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post7064582438153454718..comments2024-05-03T05:35:29.707-04:00Comments on Bond Economics: Nonlinear Models Give No Escape From r*Brian Romanchukhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-23090702352574183012020-10-21T14:27:10.735-04:002020-10-21T14:27:10.735-04:00Thanks, might take a look later.Thanks, might take a look later.Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-77952974956299623442020-10-21T12:59:38.978-04:002020-10-21T12:59:38.978-04:00I think you have made a decent imaginary curve for...I think you have made a decent imaginary curve for the interest rate versus acceleration of economic activity since I agree that monetary policy is not very effective unless the central bank imposes a considerable step change which bankrupts some financial intermediaries.<br /><br />Most papers covering methods for mathematical prediction versus statistical association are written at too abstract a level. The simple case is to interpolate a linear fit of data and then extrapolate by extending the line beyond the sample data. Engineering solution on digital computers apply piecewise linear (PWL) approximation to "linearize" the non-linear curves.<br /><br />This short paper describes some of the problems with predictive or causal models versus statistical association or curve fit models: <br /><br />https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/shmueli.pdfJoe Leotehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01292763300917387201noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-75205847999743465152020-10-21T05:14:41.912-04:002020-10-21T05:14:41.912-04:00I wrote an MMT video game a while back, and I didn...I wrote an MMT video game a while back, and I didn't know what model to link interest and inflation, so I just made interest rates reset the rate of inflation randomly.<br />https://www.newgrounds.com/portal/view/758939<br /><br />If you choose "Skip quest" you can mess around with a simulation of fed variables. The game is a little crude, but I made it cause I was trying to make an MMT based economic model, which is harder than I anticipated.Derekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11265404998402355578noreply@blogger.com