tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post1503240985821521574..comments2024-03-29T02:54:56.523-04:00Comments on Bond Economics: Book Review: Smaller Faster Denser Lighter CheaperBrian Romanchukhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-19248617505558633712015-03-22T18:50:16.759-04:002015-03-22T18:50:16.759-04:00I think that they're all likely to feed back i...I think that they're all likely to feed back into one another. Climate change will make food and water issues harder to solve, and they'll certainty require more energy, but peak oil will make that harder too.Sam Taylornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-86618684309475387222015-03-22T17:32:26.317-04:002015-03-22T17:32:26.317-04:00I'm not an expert, but the issues in food prod...I'm not an expert, but the issues in food production may be more pressing than energy. It's a getting old, but "The End of Food" (by Paul Roberts) was an excellent introduction to the topic. The title is somewhat misleading in that his tone is not apocalyptic. The problem is that there are a variety of constraints, such as topsoil. A global slowdown may drop energy consumption - which will push "Peak Oil" way away from headlines - but I imagine that people still want to eat.Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-2123692691339773042015-03-22T17:26:22.713-04:002015-03-22T17:26:22.713-04:00Yes, the molten salt reactors have a big advantage...Yes, the molten salt reactors have a big advantage for safety. I am unsure what are the negatives are. One of the issues in the 1960s was that they were not useful for weapons, which is hopefully not an issue going forward.Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-42169743389519429372015-03-22T14:04:35.008-04:002015-03-22T14:04:35.008-04:00Brian,
A thoughtful review, which I enjoyed readi...Brian,<br /><br />A thoughtful review, which I enjoyed reading. A few comments, if I may:<br /><br />1) The peak oil story is likely to get interesting after 2015-16. Economics has kept us on a plateau for now, but many of the large IOCs were struggling even at $100 a barrel, and were reducing CAPEX. Since shales have been the only real source of supply growth in the last decade, and they seem to be waning fast at present, it's hard to see where any further growth can come from, while the old super giant fields get that much more depleted with every year. In the past, growth in oil production has helped fuel a positive feedback loop in which ever more oil was extracted. I find myself worrying about what happens if that feedback loop flips direction, as seems possible.<br /><br />2) Nuclear is probably fairly limited in what it can achieve over the next decade or two. I believe that some Indian plants recently had to shut down due to uranium shortages, and it's hard to see many more large mines starting up any time soon.<br /><br />23 Your comments about aquaculture are spot on. In the north sea, many farmed cod are fed meal which is made from sand eels. Sand eel stocks have, in recent years, undergone their own collapse. Aquaculture is still far from sustainable, and is very environmentally damaging in its own way.<br /><br />4) Depletion of topsoil, as well as water, is a significant issue regarding global food production. A large amount of topsoil is lost annually, and is very difficult to replace. Desertification in areas of China and India is a concern. China and India are also drawing down their fossil aquifers at a terrifying rate. When these run dry, they will do so extremely rapidly (as happened in Saudi Arabia a few years ago) and the results will not be pretty. Indeed, a recent paper in the ecologist looked at production rates of renewable resources (things like grain, chicken, wood) and found that many of their rates of yield increase peaked around a decade or so ago, and are now decelerating.Sam Taylornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-26632019455597305452015-03-22T08:28:24.014-04:002015-03-22T08:28:24.014-04:00Thanks for answering. I've not read Bryce, but...Thanks for answering. I've not read Bryce, but as you point out its rather ironic that he would acknowledge an entrepreneurial state view for energy given his politics. My understanding of Thorium is that it would breed fuel, but in molten salt form, meaning it happens at high temperature and low pressure. Alvin Weinburg proved the breeder bit in the early 70s. It's the salt research that's the loss leader and a barrier to commercial entry. Watch this spot.Hugo Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12705056750207255618noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-43243616145328651372015-03-21T22:00:38.057-04:002015-03-21T22:00:38.057-04:00From the outset, I may have developed too much cyn...From the outset, I may have developed too much cynicism about nuclear power from reading peak oil literature. It is possible that nuclear technology will be economically viable if fossil fuels get relatively more expensive (which is certainly not happening right now).<br /><br />I looked at Thorium reactors some time ago. I believe that they are the modern version of what were called breeder reactors. So the cynical response is that the OECD had development programmes decades ago, but they were largely abandoned.<br /><br />Nuclear proponents argue that the new technologies will make these latest generation plants viable. And the advantage of this technology is that thorium is more abundant than uranium. <br /><br />I do not have the expertise to say those experts are wrong, but at the same time, if the technology was commercially viable, my expectation would be that the private sector would be pushing for it much harder.Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-71141613097449000502015-03-21T20:02:25.490-04:002015-03-21T20:02:25.490-04:00China and India have large Thorium development pro...China and India have large Thorium development programmes running now, they seem to think that's worth a shot?Hugo Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12705056750207255618noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-68060480590563387362015-03-21T12:08:11.733-04:002015-03-21T12:08:11.733-04:00Thanks again. Human ingenuity will no doubt be so...Thanks again. Human ingenuity will no doubt be sorely tested, but let's keep trying.Detroit Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03718490473585220856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-37211519034266812792015-03-21T12:02:48.413-04:002015-03-21T12:02:48.413-04:00I had read about some ships that had metal "s...I had read about some ships that had metal "sails" to boost power, not sure if that ever got into production (but it is obviously not common). At some point, I could see clippers making a comeback. They are labour-intensive, but that is OK for a lot of countries. (I imagine that a lot of small commercial boats in the developing countries are sail powered.) Water-based transport is exceedingly efficient, so that would be last area where there would be a retreat from fossil fuels. (The story I heard that it consumes less fuel to haul a container across the Pacific than it takes to haul it 60 miles(?) inland.)<br /><br />Natural gas is likely to become much more prominent. I do not have a strong idea when "peak gas" would be reached, but it is definitely not 100's of years from now. ( I am not an expert on energy, but I did follow what was happening with oil as part of my inflation-watching.) I believe that the downward production slope is much worse than is the case for oil, so it will not be a bell-shaped production curve. North America appears to be in better shape than Europe and Japan for natural gas, so there may be regional differences.Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-25028245294849446742015-03-21T11:27:26.951-04:002015-03-21T11:27:26.951-04:00Thanks for the response.
Do you see "sail-...Thanks for the response. <br /><br />Do you see "sail-powered boats" making a comeback for other than recreational use? Natural gas seems to be the way forward for the near term future. Do you see an age of natural gas? If so, how long would that last?<br /><br />Thanks again. Really appreciate your insights in this area.Detroit Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03718490473585220856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-83369827695376296702015-03-21T11:19:18.491-04:002015-03-21T11:19:18.491-04:00The current limits that matter revolve around batt...The current limits that matter revolve around battery life. They presumably can be improved, however, there is a large energy investment in the batteries. The Tesla is expensive for a reason, and I doubt that small production volumes is the only reason.<br /><br />The long-term catch is that other energy sources are needed, and there are transmission losses, etc. With gasoline, not a whole lot of energy is lost in distribution. These distribution losses imply that you need a higher amount of energy produced to get the same effective output. Therefore, projections that show just the total energy production are misleading, as the ratio of useful output/energy production will degrade over time.Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-16287514334882120612015-03-21T10:53:40.511-04:002015-03-21T10:53:40.511-04:00Thanks for that review!
I've been feeling opt...Thanks for that review!<br /><br />I've been feeling optimistic about solar power and electric cars, though I'm by no means an expert on these subjects. What are the limits to electric vehicles in replacing petroleum fueled vehicles for transportation?Detroit Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03718490473585220856noreply@blogger.com