tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post1055018899956511181..comments2024-03-01T02:40:14.946-05:00Comments on Bond Economics: Fujimaki: Japanese Hyperinflation By 2015!Brian Romanchukhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-18987905403975441542016-09-28T05:39:57.955-04:002016-09-28T05:39:57.955-04:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.WilliamKinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11551278829221366384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-69807393228829206182014-05-11T10:50:51.616-04:002014-05-11T10:50:51.616-04:00I don't think there's any reasonable argum...I don't think there's any reasonable argument against the equation, it is essentially a rewriting the definition of velocity.<br /><br />V = PQ/M, or V=GDP/M (where GDP is nominal GDP).<br /><br />V is obviously not constant; this is readily verified by looking at recent time series.<br /><br />Velocity is the defined by the inverse of the ratio of money (a stock variable) to nominal GDP. If you look at stock-flow consistent models, in a steady state, pretty well any stock variable will drift towards a steady ratio to GDP. Correspondingly, reasonable mathematical models of economies will have velocity tend towards a constant.<br /><br />But the same is true for any stock variable. So money is not particularly special in this regard.<br /><br />I am in the camp that this is just a curiousity, and changes in base money have no major effect on the economy, as long as the central bank supplies the minimum amount needed to for bank reserves. The demand for notes and coins is roughly related to nominal GDP, but the central bank has essentially no control of the amount of paper money in the economy. <br /><br /><br />Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-9739269374761929662014-05-11T10:23:27.894-04:002014-05-11T10:23:27.894-04:00Yes, that equation. The quantity theory of money...Yes, that equation. The quantity theory of money is that equation with the added assumption that the velocity of money is constant over a long enough period (which rational minds can argue). But I think all real economists agree that this equation is true (though some don't agree that it is useful). <br />http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2014/01/how-we-know-inflation-is-coming.htmlVincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-25514733878514651422014-05-11T07:16:33.141-04:002014-05-11T07:16:33.141-04:00I am unsure what equation you are referring to. Is...I am unsure what equation you are referring to. Is is MV=PQ (or whatever)? Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-89557394024492727162014-05-10T21:23:53.837-04:002014-05-10T21:23:53.837-04:00It is ok to reject the quantity theory of money bu...It is ok to reject the quantity theory of money but you are wrong if you reject the eqation of echange. Do you? <br />Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-83255348326804036822014-04-17T18:49:12.219-04:002014-04-17T18:49:12.219-04:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-16706737521399849292014-03-31T12:17:13.977-04:002014-03-31T12:17:13.977-04:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-76922726136995044592014-03-10T03:31:05.788-04:002014-03-10T03:31:05.788-04:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-67065872170132786992014-01-22T01:34:13.984-05:002014-01-22T01:34:13.984-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-79757527185514848592014-01-16T00:40:09.533-05:002014-01-16T00:40:09.533-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-13881280018301140942013-10-01T08:58:00.884-04:002013-10-01T08:58:00.884-04:00Hi,
I've read some of your articles. I have ...Hi, <br /><br />I've read some of your articles. I have not yet had time to write about inflation, never mind hyperinflation. I see hyperinflation linked to the existence of foreign currency "liabilities" (not just formal debt), but these do not really matter for the major economies. I know you reject that explanation for hyperinflation, but I did not see why. I will eventually get around to the topic of inflation once I can get my hands on more data.<br /><br />I can imagine a plausible scenario for high Japanese inflation ("core" eventually reaching 5-10%; hey why not?), but this would take years to develop. Japan is vulnerable in that they have to import a lot of raw materials. And they would have to do things that they are currently not doing to get there.<br /><br />I am like other MMT writers who reject the quantity theory of money. I take this view based on long empirical studies of monetary data and inflation in the major economies (it was part of my job description), and not based on theory (the only theory I was really familiar with at the time was actually Monetarism). I do not see QE doing anything; it didn't work in the past either (see chart above).<br /><br />Sure, Japanese inflation rates have risen over the past couple months. If you look at my chart, we have seen similar things countless times over the past two decades; but Japan has still achieved price level stability. I would be impressed if the CPI manages to rise above the top end of the y-axis of my chart above, never mind having a hyperinflation.<br /><br />I may write about hyperinflation later, but I can add your posts to my re-branded list of "Extreme Japanese Forecasts". (It's in the "Theme" section of posts, backdated to July 2013.)Brian Romanchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699198289421951151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5908830827135060852.post-41554779908449759862013-09-30T22:00:45.418-04:002013-09-30T22:00:45.418-04:00Hello again Brian. I finally responded to your co...Hello again Brian. I finally responded to your comment on my simulation. Thanks.<br /><br />If you are tracking of outlandish forecasts about Japan then I have a couple for you:<br /><br />Japan is already printing money at hyperinflationary rates:<br />http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2013/05/bank-of-japan-printing-at.html<br /><br />It will only be a few months before Japan goes zooming past their 2% inflation target:<br />http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2013/09/zooming-past-inflation-target.html<br /><br />And I can now explain hyperinflation using many different theories. So if one does not make sense, just keep reading to try another view:<br />http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2013/09/hyperinflation-explained-in-many.html<br />Vincent Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502618776820144289noreply@blogger.com